2010 Opening Day Predictions
April 4, 2010
by Clay Dreslough (Baseball Mogul Lead Programmer)The following predictions were calculated with Baseball Mogul 2011, using Opening Day rosters and injuries. The entire 2010 season (with the accurate MLB schedule for each team) was played 1,000 times and the average results are shown below.
'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.
| AL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| New York | 95 | 67 | -- | 14.8% |
| Boston | 95 | 67 | -- | 15.6% |
| Tampa Bay | 94 | 68 | 1.0 | 8.5% |
| Toronto | 66 | 96 | 29.0 | 0.2% |
| Baltimore | 65 | 97 | 30.0 | 0.0% |
A good chance for a tight 3-way race. I think the Yankees are the best team in the division, but the advantage of a realistic simulation is that it rewards depth. The Red Sox have better starting pitching in AAA than the Yankees, and this could come into play as pitchers break down during the season.
| AL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Minnesota | 86 | 76 | -- | 3.2% |
| Detroit | 81 | 81 | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| Chicago | 76 | 86 | 10.0 | 0.5% |
| Kansas City | 74 | 88 | 12.0 | 0.3% |
| Cleveland | 70 | 92 | 16.0 | 0.0% |
It looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for another year.
| AL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Oakland | 86 | 76 | -- | 3.1% |
| Texas | 84 | 78 | 2.0 | 1.8% |
| Seattle | 83 | 79 | 3.0 | 1.4% |
| Los Angeles | 74 | 88 | 12.0 | 0.4% |
The tightest division in baseball. A team below .500 might make the playoffs. The Angels struggle without John Lackey and Vlad Guerrero.
| NL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Philadelphia | 89 | 73 | -- | 12.1% |
| New York | 84 | 78 | 5.0 | 4.5% |
| Atlanta | 83 | 79 | 6.0 | 4.1% |
| Florida | 78 | 84 | 11.0 | 0.3% |
| Washington | 71 | 91 | 18.0 | 0.0% |
The Phillies swapped Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, and Halladay will probably have a better year.
| NL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| St. Louis | 93 | 69 | -- | 8.9% |
| Milwaukee | 84 | 78 | 9.0 | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati | 82 | 80 | 11.0 | 1.4% |
| Chicago | 78 | 87 | 13.0 | 0.2% |
| Pittsburgh | 77 | 86 | 14.0 | 0.1% |
| Houston | 70 | 92 | 15.0 | 0.0% |
With 9 teams projected for between 81 and 90 wins, the National League could have a tight wild card race, even if the Cardinals run away with the NL Central again.
The Astros might grab the title of "worse team in baseball" from the Nationals.
| NL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Los Angeles | 87 | 75 | -- | 6.8% |
| Colorado | 85 | 77 | 2.0 | 3.9% |
| Arizona | 83 | 79 | 4.0 | 2.6% |
| San Francisco | 78 | 84 | 9.0 | 1.1% |
| San Diego | 75 | 87 | 12.0 | 0.2% |
Like the AL West, another tight division. Even the Padres won the World Series twice out of one thousand simulated seasons.
Other Simulation Results
AL MVP:
1. Miguel Cabrera (DET)
2. Mark Texiera (NYY)
3. Kevin YoukilisAL CY YOUNG:
1. C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
2. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
3. Ben Sheets (OAK)Best Chance For No-Hitter (AL)
1. Jon Lester (BOS)
2. Erik Bedard (BAL)
3. Felix Hernandez (SEA)NL MVP:
1. Albert Pujols (STL)
2. Ryan Braun (MIL)
3. Prince Fielder (MIL)NL CY YOUNG:
1. Roy Halladay (PHI)
2. Tim Lincecum (SFG)
3. Adam Wainwright (STL)Best Chance For No-Hitter (NL)
1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
2. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
3. Tim Lincecum (SFG)
About These Predictions
The "Single-Season Simulator" feature in Baseball Mogul 2011 was used, without any special programming, to produce the above results. To simulate any season from 1901 to 2010 (and beyond) or take control of your favorite team, you can buy the newest version or download the free demo.