April 5, 2009
Opening day. Every team is in first place. Every team has a chance to win it all!
Alas, for fans in San Diego, that chance is only 0.04%.
We used Baseball Mogul 2010 to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. That's over 2 million individual games; over 500 million individual pitches.
Here's some of what we found:
- The most likely World Series is a match-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Dodgers. At least it won't snow during Game 7.
- The NL East is a tough division. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are all very good — decreasing the chance of any one of them to survive all the way to the World Series.
- The AL East is just as tough, with the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all projected to win at least 89 games.
- Albert Pujols has a 29.3% chance to win his 3rd NL MVP award, making him the favorite in that category.
- The AL MVP race is wide open. Miguel Cabrera is the front-runner with a 14.2% chance. But Grady Sizemore, Justin Morneau and Mark Teixeira and are also strong contenders.
- There is even a 0.63% chance that A-Rod comes back from surgery in May and goes on to post numbers good enough to earn his 4th MVP.
- New Yankee Stadium helps the Yankees top the American League in attendance. The Dodgers will likely lead the National League. The medicore Marlins have the hardest time selling tickets.
- Youth and depth matter. The Rays and Red Sox are both projected to win 91 games — but the Rays should enter the playoffs with a healthier pitching staff. Youth also gives the Brewers the edge in the NL Central.
Page 2: American League Predictions
Download the free demo version of Baseball Mogul 2010.
Processor: P600 or better (or Pentium-compatible)
Memory: Required 256 MB, Recommended 512 MB
OS: Windows XP/2000/2003/Vista
Hard Drive Space: 250 MB
Display: At least 1024 x 768 screen resolution
Not supported: Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows ME, Windows NT