Peak Ratings in Baseball Mogul

 As I have seen some confusion about "Peak" ratings, I wanted to take a minute to describe Baseball Mogul's scouting system and clear up any confusion.

The calculation of peak ratings is designed to be as realistic as possible, matching the predictions that actual major league scouts would provide. To quote Baseball America, "our view is not necessarily to what a player will do this season, but what his ultimate major league ceiling is, weighed against the likelihood that he will reach that ceiling."

The key word in that sentence is "ceiling". Baseball Mogul’s “peak” rating is the top end of the performance window projected for that player. A player’s most likely peak will always be a few points below the one you see on draft day. Some players with a peak rating of 92 will reach that level, but most won't.

To see how “peak” ratings work in real life, take a look at Baseball America’s list of top prospects in 2010:

Seven prospects were given the maximum grade of 80 by Baseball America: Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton, Jesus Montero, Desmond Jennings, Neftali Feliz and Dustin Ackley. A rating of 80 on the 20-80 scale translates to a rating of 92 on Baseball Mogul’s 50-100 scale. So let's see how these players rate seven years later, according to Baseball Mogul 2017: 

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Giancarlo Stanton: 92
Stephen Strasburg: 89
Jason Heyward: 83
Neftali Feliz: 81
Desmond Jennings: 79
Dustin Ackley: 79
Jesus Montero: 77

​It’s fair to say that Stanton and Strasburg reached their full potential. Stanton stayed there, but Strasburg has lost a few points of effectiveness over the last 3 years.

Heyward was in the MVP discussion in 2015, but followed it up with 2 disappointing seasons. Feliz was an effective closer for the Rangers in 2010 and 2011, but has pitched less than 55 innings in each of the last six seasons.

This kind of variability is what Baseball Mogul is modeling. Some players reach their projected ceiling (e.g. Stanton and Strasburg). Some become effective everyday players but don’t establish themselves as superstars (Heyward and Feliz). And some struggle to stay in the majors (Jennings, Ackley, Montero). 

Note: To use the 20-80 rating scale in Baseball Mogul, select “Options…” on the Tools menu and change the selection under “Player Rating Scale”.