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Sports   Mogul   blog

Honey, I Screwed Up The Rosters

3/31/2018

1 Comment

 
This year, I had the bright idea to crowdsource the rosters. This worked pretty well, except that about 215 players got messed up in the last two days of the beta. I'm not sure if it was a prank or an accident, but I've fixed it for Version 21.01.

You can download and Version 21.01 here. I've locked down the roster file for now. So if you have any corrections, please send them to me at [email protected]. Thanks!
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1 Comment

Baseball Mogul 18 Preview: Historical Sims

3/29/2018

3 Comments

 
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Previous versions of Baseball Mogul had a problem with extreme outliers. Babe Ruth is the best example. Baseball Mogul’s rating system assumes that player performance almost always falls within about 4 standard deviations of the league average: this should cover 99.994% of all players.
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Unfortunately, Babe Ruth hit home runs at a rate that was 4-6 standard deviations above the rest of the league. In a simulation that produces a realistic distribution of outcomes, the chance of a result that is 6 deviations above average is about 1 in a billion (1,013,594,692 to be exact).

Babe Ruth might able to hit 60 homers in 1987, when the league average was quite high, but he’ll never hit 60 homers in 1921 – even though this is what he did in real life. This means that if you simmed 1927 in Baseball Mogul 2017, Babe Ruth only hit 20-30 home runs.

Baseball Mogul 2018 fixes this. 
It’s complicated, but I re-wrote the rating calculation code to compress the distribution of player ratings in seasons when statistical output (e.g. home runs) is below the historical average. Then I adjusted the sim to correctly handle these new values.
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Actual 1927 AL Home Run Leaders
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1927 Simmed in Baseball Mogul 2017
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1927 Simmed in Baseball Mogul 2018
3 Comments

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