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The Thanos Button

6/23/2020

19 Comments

 
In response to the overwhelming feedback to my blog post about the Thanos Snap, I've added a "Thanos Button" to Baseball Mogul 2020:
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Clicking this button randomly disintegrates half of the players in the database. It also eliminates half of everyone on earth, with corresponding adjustments to the population  level of each team's fan base.
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If you already own Baseball Mogul 2020, you can get access to this button by installing  the patch for Version 23.07. If you don't have Baseball Mogul 2020, you can try out this feature in the free version.
19 Comments

Relief Pitcher Artificial Intelligence

6/15/2020

0 Comments

 
I don't normally thank people publicly for detailed feedback, because doing so feels like a slight to the many contributors that I don't recognize. Nevertheless, I'd like to thank Damon Preston for sending me the following bug report and his league's saved game file — helping me find and fix some issues in the relief pitcher code. 
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Baseball Mogul tries to use pitchers according to their specified roles (e.g. "Short Relief").
In an 8th-inning save situation, the game should have chosen Tony Watson (the Setup Man). But my analysis of the saved game file showed that the code skipped Watson to get the platoon advantage, and it went all the way down to Jimenez because of a tiny difference in pitcher fatigue levels.

I was able to rewrite the relevant code and fix the above mistakes in Version 23.07. Thanks to everyone for the continued feedback. Baseball is a complex game, and it takes a village to create a realistic simulation of it.
0 Comments

Would There Be Baseball After Thanos?

6/2/2020

6 Comments

 
At the beginning of Avengers: Endgame, the camera flies over an empty Citi Field, showing us that major league baseball is just one of the casualties of Thanos' "snap". If the baseball season can be cancelled for a virus that has killed 100,000 Americans, then surely it would be stopped by a super-villian killing more than 160 million Americans.

Right?
Citi Field (Empty)
Citi Field, abandoned after the Thanos snap.
Well, arguments have been made on both sides. But what we do know is that, financially, Major League Baseball would be fine. Eliminating 50% of all major league players would cause team payrolls to drop by 50% — but demand for tickets would only drop by about 30%. At least in the short term, Major League Baseball would actually be more profitable.
To understand why, we look at the research I did for Baseball Mogul's economic engine. This analysis showed that team revenue doesn't grow linearly with the number of people in that team's fan base. Roughly speaking, team revenue is a function of the square root of the population in the team's metropolitan area.

For one example, look at the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore's metropolitan area (2.8 million people) is 54% smaller than Philadelphia's (6.1 million), but the Orioles' 2019 revenue ($256 million) is only about 35% lower than the Phillies' revenue ($392 million).

According to this relationship, if Thanos made 50% of all Philly fans disappear, team revenue would only drop by about 33%. The country would be in shock. But unlike our current situation, there's no economic reason baseball couldn't return.
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6 Comments

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