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Sports   Mogul   blog

Baseball Mogul 18 Preview: Historical Sims

3/29/2018

3 Comments

 
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Previous versions of Baseball Mogul had a problem with extreme outliers. Babe Ruth is the best example. Baseball Mogul’s rating system assumes that player performance almost always falls within about 4 standard deviations of the league average: this should cover 99.994% of all players.
​
Unfortunately, Babe Ruth hit home runs at a rate that was 4-6 standard deviations above the rest of the league. In a simulation that produces a realistic distribution of outcomes, the chance of a result that is 6 deviations above average is about 1 in a billion (1,013,594,692 to be exact).

Babe Ruth might able to hit 60 homers in 1987, when the league average was quite high, but he’ll never hit 60 homers in 1921 – even though this is what he did in real life. This means that if you simmed 1927 in Baseball Mogul 2017, Babe Ruth only hit 20-30 home runs.

Baseball Mogul 2018 fixes this. 
It’s complicated, but I re-wrote the rating calculation code to compress the distribution of player ratings in seasons when statistical output (e.g. home runs) is below the historical average. Then I adjusted the sim to correctly handle these new values.
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Actual 1927 AL Home Run Leaders
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1927 Simmed in Baseball Mogul 2017
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1927 Simmed in Baseball Mogul 2018
3 Comments
Raleigh Witten
4/5/2018 12:28:02 pm

Do you have any idea how to have Shohei Otani as a pitcher and as a hitter? You can't really have him as DH and a pitcher with current roster settings... I know this is a pain in the ass... Just curious...

Reply
Robert Bruce
4/9/2018 11:12:09 am

Thank you! I love starting my franchises ca. 1920 and this has always been a problem. Great stuff, sold me on getting the new 2018 version!

Reply
Steven link
1/8/2021 11:05:22 pm

Hello niice blog

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